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Kalshi’s compliance department uncovered a series of large trades made by Santos throughout February 2026 involving contracts that would pay out based on whether he attended the State of the Union address on 24 February. 

The exchange reported that Santos then issued public statements regarding his attendance, some deemed false or misleading, that were deliberately aimed at influencing the price of “Yes” or “No” contracts connected to his attendance. 

Kalshi stated that these statements successfully moved market prices and that Santos realised profits totalling $17,839.57 from the trades. After detecting Santos’ trades, Kalshi froze his account then referred the matter to federal authorities, NPR reported. 

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But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”

For now, the growth provides room for multiple market makers. Marantelli expects margins to “stay good during the growth period” before contracting as competition intensifies. The more complex RFQ and parlay markets may offer the best protection against that compression.

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This will enable them to continue legal operations in the Netherlands from 1 October 2026 through to 30 September 2031. 

It is the first time since the market was launched in 2021 that licences have come up for renewal and whomever is on the final list will indicate how many operators have decided not to remain in the market.

The initial 2021 licences are set to expire at the end of September 2026. All licence holders were required to submit applications for the subsequent five-year period, covering 2026 to 2031.